Power & infrastructure / Reading guide
Follow the evidence from electricity-demand estimates through grid equipment and construction costs.
Reading prompt: Keep measured or estimated consumption separate from forecasts. Compare the geography, period, and definition before comparing the values.
Read the full topic context →Data centres were just over 1% of global electricity demand and 0.5% of CO2 emissions in 2024 (US nearly half, China ~25%, Europe ~15%); to 2030 they add a projected 530 TWh of demand against 838 TWh for electric vehicles and 651 TWh for air conditioning.
Estimates of China's data centre electricity use disagree by more than a factor of two: 200 TWh for 2020 (State Council), 77 TWh for 2022 (Development Research Centre), roughly 100 TWh for 2024 at a share stated between 0.9% and 2.7%, and 2030 projections from 400 TWh to about 600 TWh.
US data centres used 58 TWh in 2014 and 176 TWh in 2023 (4.4% of national electricity); Berkeley Lab projects 325-580 TWh by 2028, or 6.7-12% — a range spanning nearly a factor of two, which is the laboratory's own stated uncertainty, not a conflict between sources.
Reading prompt: Read whose lead-time estimate is being quoted, when it was made, and whether another source describes a different market.
Read the full topic context →Second-quarter 2025 survey averages put power transformers at 128 weeks and generator step-up units at 144 weeks against 44 for switchgear, after demand rose 274% for GSUs and 119% for power transformers since 2019 and prices rose 77% and 45% — atop an installed base of 40 million U.S. distribution transformers beyond service life.
A transformer broker quoted in the same reporting states there is no shortage, that standard substation units can be delivered in 12 to 14 months across all voltage classes, and that the scarcity is exaggerated to drive pricing — locating the bottleneck in utility qualification and vendor-list practices rather than factory capacity.
Reading prompt: Identify the capacity denominator and project scope. Construction cost is a different measure from power consumption or completed capacity.
Read the full topic context →Turner & Townsend's 2025 analysis reports average construction costs 7 to 10 per cent higher for liquid-cooled data centres in the US than equivalent air-cooled facilities of similar IT capacity. This compares construction costs; it does not establish the distribution of total AI infrastructure or operating costs.
Data centres are benchmarked in dollars per watt because the constraint is electrical: a 2025 index spans $9.5 per watt in Charlotte to $15.2 in Tokyo, with the year's increase for a traditional air-cooled facility put at 5.5%, down from 9.0% the prior year.