{"schema_version":"2026-09-05.topic-graph-v1","canonical_url":"https://www.manufacturing.ai/topics/substrates","topic":{"slug":"substrates","name":"The Substrate Underneath","description":"A sourced reference collection on the laminate board every AI accelerator sits on — why substrate suppliers are being handed their customers' capital to build factories, why organic laminate is running out of area, and why the glass core that was supposed to replace it has consumed a billion dollars and three years without reaching a single product.","coverage_notes":"Tenth packet, and the one where what is left out matters most. Eleven sources were consulted: five were retrieved and read, and six were surfaced and set aside with a stated reason. One of the reads returned only navigation furniture to the automated fetcher and was opened in a browser instead; no paywall, subscription or challenge was circumvented anywhere in this collection. The deliberate absence is the ABF shortage literature. Estimates of a single supplier's share of the build-up film market ranged, within one session's searching, from 58% to over 95%, and market-size estimates for the same year differed by an order of magnitude — all from syndicated reports that sit behind purchase and disclose no method. None is used, and no market-share, market-size, shortage-percentage, price-increase or layer-count-progression figure appears anywhere on this page, even though those numbers are the most widely circulated things written about this subject. What is asserted instead is what suppliers have themselves filed and announced: a board-approved capital plan and a regulated ad-hoc disclosure, both of which are harder statements about demand than a forecast. On glass, Intel's ratios are recorded as its claims, given without a stated baseline; the engineering figures come from a survey that is explicit about what has slipped and by how much, and its closing observation — that no production design exists and that every customer attached to glass comes from industry reporting rather than confirmation — is carried onto the page as a finding rather than dropped. Named gaps, in order of value: Ajinomoto's own disclosure about the film that gives ABF substrates their name, for which no working URL was established after two 404s, and which is why nothing about film supply is asserted here; DigiTimes reporting on Taiwanese substrate capacity, which sits behind subscription and is why Unimicron appears as a name with no figure attached while the Japanese and Austrian suppliers appear with figures they filed themselves; Samsung Electro-Mechanics' own announcement of the GLASEM joint venture; MIT Technology Review's reporting on early Absolics yields, which reaches this page second-hand and is attributed that way; and Unimicron's own investor disclosure. Not yet editor-reviewed; every assertion reads as reported.","primer":"Underneath the silicon and underneath the interposer there is a board. The package substrate fans thousands of connections out from the die complex to the motherboard and carries power back in, built by laminating alternating layers of insulating film and copper onto a core. It is the least photographed component in an accelerator and one of the hardest to buy.\n\nHow hard is readable from what suppliers are spending, which is a better instrument than any forecast because it is board-approved and filed. IBIDEN approved approximately 500 billion yen of capital investment across fiscal 2026 to 2028, roughly 220 billion of it centred on its Gama plant in Ogaki, explicitly for AI and high-performance server substrates. AT&S went further, in a form that carries more weight: an ad-hoc disclosure — the regulated announcement a listed company must make when information moves its price — stating agreements with AMD and one unnamed technology company to expand high-end substrate capacity in Kulim, Malaysia, with the 1.5 to 2.0 billion euros required fully financed by long-term customer commitments. The customer is funding the supplier's factory. That is what a buyer does when it is more worried about getting the part than about its price.\n\nThe technical problem is area. As accelerator packages grow, the substrate beneath them has to stay flat across a wider span while carrying more layers, and organic laminate warps. For scale: one estimate puts NVIDIA's Rubin Ultra package at roughly 7,470 square millimetres, about nine reticles of silicon and memory, against around 2,739 for Blackwell. Round interposer wafers waste a growing share of their area on rectangular products at that size, and CoWoS interposer wafers run on the order of $10,000 each, comparable to a processed 7nm wafer.\n\nThe proposed answer is to replace the organic core with glass. Intel announced it in September 2023 with more than a billion dollars behind it, claiming a tenfold increase in interconnect density and 50% less pattern distortion. The mechanism is thermal expansion: a glass core can be tuned to roughly 3 to 10 parts per million per degree Celsius against silicon's 2.6, which cuts warpage by about half, and a rectangular 510 by 515 millimetre panel devotes more than 75% of its area to large die against roughly 50% for a round 300 millimetre wafer.\n\nThree years on it is in no commercial product, and every timeline has slipped. Absolics planned mass production for the first half of 2024 and is now targeting the end of 2026; a U.S. government award summary written earlier expected first customer deliveries in 2025. Intel has moved to licensing its patents and showing demonstration vehicles, with deployment pointed at around 2030. The obstacles are specific: glass chips and cracks at the edges during drilling and dicing, and while edge coating has cut measured edge stress from 95 MPa to 49 MPa, metallising vias below ten microns and holding nanometre-scale flatness across a half-metre panel remain unsolved.\n\nThe most useful thing anyone has written about the field is a sourcing observation rather than an engineering one: no production design exists, and every customer publicly attached to glass — AMD, Broadcom, AWS, NVIDIA — comes from industry reporting rather than from confirmation by anyone involved. TSMC, whose decision matters most, is going panel-level first on 310 by 310 millimetre panels with glass integration described by an equipment supplier as under review rather than committed.\n\nWhat is deliberately absent is named. The ABF shortage is among the most repeated stories in this supply chain and among the worst sourced. Estimates of one company's share of the build-up film market that surfaced in a session's searching ran from 58% to over 95%, all from syndicated reports that sit behind purchase and disagree with each other. None is used, and no market-share, market-size, shortage-percentage or price-increase figure is asserted anywhere on this page.","primer_note":"Manufacturing.ai's own editorial synthesis, not evidence. Every factual statement in it is separately asserted and sourced in this response's concepts and events.","reviewed_through_date":null,"source_count":5,"inspected_source_count":5,"consulted_reference_count":13,"blocked_reference_count":3,"set_aside_reference_count":10},"figures":[{"kind":"time-series","title":"The package the substrate has to stay flat under","caption":"Estimated package area by accelerator generation. The substrate problem is this number, because organic laminate loses dimensional stability as the span grows.","sourceNote":"TrendForce estimates reported in August 2026: roughly 2,739 mm-squared for Blackwell and roughly 7,470 mm-squared for Rubin Ultra, the latter described as about nine reticles' worth of silicon and memory. Both are third-party estimates of package area, not manufacturer specifications, and Rubin Ultra is an announced future product.","unit":"Estimated package area, square millimetres","points":[{"label":"Blackwell","value":2739,"display":"~2,739 mm²"},{"label":"Rubin Ultra","value":7470,"display":"~7,470 mm²"}]},{"kind":"time-series","title":"How much of the panel becomes product","caption":"Share of area usable for large die, rectangular glass panel against round silicon wafer. This is the geometric half of the case for changing shape.","sourceNote":"Reported August 2026: more than 75% of a rectangular 510 x 515 mm panel's area is usable for large die, against roughly 50% for a round 300 mm wafer. Both are figures for large rectangular products specifically; the penalty is smaller for small die.","unit":"Share of area usable for large die, per cent","points":[{"label":"Round 300 mm wafer","value":50,"display":"~50%"},{"label":"Rectangular 510 x 515 mm panel","value":75,"display":">75%"}]}],"blocked_references":[{"title":"All AI Data Center Interconnects Will Be Optical Within 5 Years","publisher":"Semiconductor Engineering","url":"https://semiengineering.com/all-ai-data-center-interconnects-will-be-optical-within-5-years/","source_type":"journalism","retrieval_status":"blocked_403","content_inspected":false,"published_at":null},{"title":"Intel Foundry — Advanced Packaging (EMIB, Foveros)","publisher":"Intel","url":"https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/foundry/advanced-packaging.html","source_type":"company_website","retrieval_status":"blocked_403","content_inspected":false,"published_at":null},{"title":"TSMC-SoIC (expected location)","publisher":"TSMC","url":"https://3dfabric.tsmc.com/english/dedicatedFoundry/technology/tsmc-soic.htm","source_type":"company_website","retrieval_status":"blocked_404","content_inspected":false,"published_at":null}],"set_aside_references":[{"title":"Ajinomoto Build-up Film product and business disclosure","publisher":"Ajinomoto Co., Inc.","url":"https://www.ajinomoto.com/","source_type":"company_website","retrieval_status":"search_result_only","content_inspected":false},{"title":"Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) - TSMC","publisher":"WikiChip","url":"https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/tsmc/cowos","source_type":"other","retrieval_status":"search_result_only","content_inspected":false},{"title":"DigiTimes reporting on Taiwanese ABF substrate capacity and Unimicron","publisher":"DigiTimes","url":"https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20260529PD239/unimicron-revenue-2026-demand-substrate.html","source_type":"journalism","retrieval_status":"search_result_only","content_inspected":false},{"title":"MIT Technology Review reporting on early Absolics glass production yields","publisher":"MIT Technology Review","url":"https://www.technologyreview.com/","source_type":"journalism","retrieval_status":"search_result_only","content_inspected":false},{"title":"Samsung Electro-Mechanics and the GLASEM glass-core joint venture","publisher":"Samsung Electro-Mechanics","url":"https://www.samsungsem.com/global/index.do","source_type":"company_website","retrieval_status":"search_result_only","content_inspected":false},{"title":"Syndicated Ajinomoto Build-up Film and ABF substrate market reports","publisher":"Various market research firms","url":"https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/ajinomoto-build-up-film-market-234361012.html","source_type":"other","retrieval_status":"search_result_only","content_inspected":false},{"title":"TSMC Accelerates CoPoS Packaging to Replace CoWoS, as Glass Core Substrates Cut Costs 30% and Boost Wafer Utilization Past 90%","publisher":"Wccftech","url":"https://wccftech.com/tsmc-accelerates-copos-packaging-replace-cowos-as-glass-core-substrates-cut-costs-boost-wafer-utilizatio/","source_type":"journalism","retrieval_status":"search_result_only","content_inspected":false},{"title":"TSMC Advances Panel-Level Packaging, CoPoS Pilot Line Reportedly Set for June Completion","publisher":"TrendForce","url":"https://www.trendforce.com/news/2026/04/13/news-tsmc-advances-panel-level-packaging-copos-pilot-line-reportedly-set-for-june-completion-2028-29-ramp-eyed/","source_type":"journalism","retrieval_status":"search_result_only","content_inspected":false},{"title":"TSMC Prepares CoPoS: Next-Gen 310 x 310 mm Packages","publisher":"TechPowerUp","url":"https://www.techpowerup.com/337960/tsmc-prepares-copos-next-gen-310-x-310-mm-packages","source_type":"journalism","retrieval_status":"search_result_only","content_inspected":false},{"title":"Unimicron Technology Corporation investor disclosure","publisher":"Unimicron","url":"https://www.unimicron.com/","source_type":"company_website","retrieval_status":"search_result_only","content_inspected":false}],"concepts":[{"slug":"advanced-packaging","name":"Advanced Packaging","category":"packaging_technology","canonical_url":"https://www.manufacturing.ai/topics/substrates#advanced-packaging","assertions":[]},{"slug":"cowos","name":"CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate)","category":"packaging_technology","canonical_url":"https://www.manufacturing.ai/topics/substrates#cowos","assertions":[]},{"slug":"panel-level-packaging","name":"Panel-Level Packaging","category":"packaging_technology","canonical_url":"https://www.manufacturing.ai/topics/substrates#panel-level-packaging","assertions":[]},{"slug":"reticle-limit","name":"Reticle Limit","category":"process","canonical_url":"https://www.manufacturing.ai/topics/substrates#reticle-limit","assertions":[]},{"slug":"interposer","name":"Silicon Interposer","category":"packaging_technology","canonical_url":"https://www.manufacturing.ai/topics/substrates#interposer","assertions":[]},{"slug":"glass-core-substrate","name":"The Glass Core Substrate","category":"packaging_technology","canonical_url":"https://www.manufacturing.ai/topics/substrates#glass-core-substrate","assertions":[{"id":"009c1efb-1481-4b7e-b887-d5967f0146b2","predicate":"concept.description","statement":"Intel claimed in September 2023 a 10x interconnect density increase and 50% less pattern distortion for glass over organic substrates; the mechanism is a core tunable to roughly 3-10 ppm per degree Celsius against silicon's 2.6, halving warpage, with rectangular panels using over 75% of their area for large die against roughly 50% for round wafers.","assessment":"reported","editor_reviewed":false,"reference_only_source_count":0,"evidence":[{"id":"11ef10fd-65a5-44c2-907e-71285599a0cb","stance":"supports","is_primary_for_assertion":true,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"Intel Unveils Industry-Leading Glass Substrates to Meet Demand for More Powerful Compute","publisher":"Intel Corporation","url":"https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1647/intel-unveils-industry-leading-glass-substrates-to-meet","source_type":"press_release","retrieval_status":"fetched","content_inspected":true,"published_at":"2023-09-18","documents":[]}},{"id":"8ff49c34-c97c-47d3-a8de-6748073fbeb1","stance":"supports","is_primary_for_assertion":false,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"Glass substrate roadmaps examined — Absolics in final qualification and a first product that keeps slipping","publisher":"Tom's Hardware","url":"https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/manufacturing/glass-substrate-roadmap-examined","source_type":"journalism","retrieval_status":"fetched","content_inspected":true,"published_at":"2026-08-27","documents":[]}}]},{"id":"42092fd7-1d9b-4957-9c46-d8b6e479c38a","predicate":"concept.description","statement":"The glass programmes are mostly Korean and Japanese: Absolics at Covington with 12,000 square metres a year of Phase 1 capacity, Samsung Electro-Mechanics' 482.1 billion won GLASEM joint venture targeting an operating plant in the second half of 2027, LG Innotek at Gumi for 2027-2028, and Dai Nippon Printing, Toppan and Nippon Electric Glass in Japan — while TSMC goes panel-level first with glass under review.","assessment":"reported","editor_reviewed":false,"reference_only_source_count":0,"evidence":[{"id":"da9cdd12-c771-4fbc-a5fa-4588f1ae94bf","stance":"supports","is_primary_for_assertion":false,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"Absolics (Georgia) — CHIPS for America award summary","publisher":"NIST, U.S. Department of Commerce","url":"https://www.nist.gov/chips/absolics-georgia-covington","source_type":"other","retrieval_status":"fetched","content_inspected":true,"published_at":null,"documents":[]}},{"id":"6a0b4b4e-ca9e-43ba-a06b-b7e709a3d05f","stance":"supports","is_primary_for_assertion":false,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"Glass substrate roadmaps examined — Absolics in final qualification and a first product that keeps slipping","publisher":"Tom's Hardware","url":"https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/manufacturing/glass-substrate-roadmap-examined","source_type":"journalism","retrieval_status":"fetched","content_inspected":true,"published_at":"2026-08-27","documents":[]}}]},{"id":"d76cff6d-621c-4960-9c60-48b98f1c69e8","predicate":"concept.description","statement":"Glass-core substrates are in no commercial product three years after Intel's announcement: Absolics slipped from first-half 2024 to end-2026, Intel moved to licensing with deployment around 2030, edge cracking and sub-ten-micron via metallisation remain open, and every named customer comes from industry reporting rather than confirmation.","assessment":"reported","editor_reviewed":false,"reference_only_source_count":0,"evidence":[{"id":"0ca34b6f-b10a-4747-9ab8-691d3140604d","stance":"supports","is_primary_for_assertion":false,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"Glass substrate roadmaps examined — Absolics in final qualification and a first product that keeps slipping","publisher":"Tom's Hardware","url":"https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/manufacturing/glass-substrate-roadmap-examined","source_type":"journalism","retrieval_status":"fetched","content_inspected":true,"published_at":"2026-08-27","documents":[]}},{"id":"4c5d63e1-7263-43f5-9f02-24025b40cc1a","stance":"qualifies","is_primary_for_assertion":false,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"Absolics (Georgia) — CHIPS for America award summary","publisher":"NIST, U.S. Department of Commerce","url":"https://www.nist.gov/chips/absolics-georgia-covington","source_type":"other","retrieval_status":"fetched","content_inspected":true,"published_at":null,"documents":[]}}]}]},{"slug":"ic-package-substrate","name":"The IC Package Substrate","category":"packaging_technology","canonical_url":"https://www.manufacturing.ai/topics/substrates#ic-package-substrate","assertions":[{"id":"9ce70aa5-ed1d-47e3-ac0a-c8296477b7d1","predicate":"concept.description","statement":"The package substrate is a laminate of alternating insulating film and copper layers that fans a die complex out to the motherboard and delivers power inward; its difficulty scales with layer count and area, and organic laminates lose dimensional stability as accelerator packages grow.","assessment":"reported","editor_reviewed":false,"reference_only_source_count":0,"evidence":[{"id":"9d0d3cf9-c2ff-493f-b3be-7122320f6569","stance":"supports","is_primary_for_assertion":true,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"Intel Unveils Industry-Leading Glass Substrates to Meet Demand for More Powerful Compute","publisher":"Intel Corporation","url":"https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1647/intel-unveils-industry-leading-glass-substrates-to-meet","source_type":"press_release","retrieval_status":"fetched","content_inspected":true,"published_at":"2023-09-18","documents":[]}},{"id":"fb519c29-cf39-4b64-8ff3-f8d9aeeca0bb","stance":"supports","is_primary_for_assertion":false,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"Glass substrate roadmaps examined — Absolics in final qualification and a first product that keeps slipping","publisher":"Tom's Hardware","url":"https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/manufacturing/glass-substrate-roadmap-examined","source_type":"journalism","retrieval_status":"fetched","content_inspected":true,"published_at":"2026-08-27","documents":[]}}]},{"id":"fb8a98a4-1af6-4c2b-ab7f-e541819ec568","predicate":"concept.description","statement":"IBIDEN approved approximately 500 billion yen of electronics capital investment for fiscal 2026-2028 citing AI and high-performance server substrate demand, and AT&S disclosed that the 1.5-2.0 billion euros for its Kulim expansion is fully financed by long-term customer commitments — the buyer funding the supplier's factory.","assessment":"reported","editor_reviewed":false,"reference_only_source_count":0,"evidence":[{"id":"a2af400d-d080-4a23-8d5f-242073607a8d","stance":"supports","is_primary_for_assertion":true,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"AT&S expands AI substrate capacity in Kulim and increases outlook for 2026/27 (ad-hoc release)","publisher":"AT&S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik AG (via EQS)","url":"https://www.eqs-news.com/news/ad-hoc/ats-austria-technologie-systemtechnik-ag-ats-expands-ai-substrate-capacity-in-kulim-and-increases-outlook-for-2026-27/1a92bc40-a144-4533-878c-cf31c886f44c_en","source_type":"regulatory_filing","retrieval_status":"fetched","content_inspected":true,"published_at":"2026-06-13","documents":[]}},{"id":"f10d7ed8-66c6-4c46-a644-b0526515a2cd","stance":"supports","is_primary_for_assertion":true,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"Notice Regarding Capital Investment Plan for High-Performance IC Package Substrates","publisher":"IBIDEN CO., LTD.","url":"https://www.ibiden.com/company/2026/02/notice-regarding-capital-investment-plan-for-high-performance-ic-package-substrates.html","source_type":"press_release","retrieval_status":"fetched","content_inspected":true,"published_at":"2026-02-03","documents":[]}}]}]},{"slug":"packaging-capacity-constraint","name":"The Packaging Capacity 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confirmation.","assessment":"reported","editor_reviewed":false,"reference_only_source_count":0,"evidence":[{"id":"920d815a-0ad0-4639-949d-a1dd3c631bc9","stance":"supports","is_primary_for_assertion":false,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"Glass substrate roadmaps examined — Absolics in final qualification and a first product that keeps slipping","publisher":"Tom's Hardware","url":"https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/manufacturing/glass-substrate-roadmap-examined","source_type":"journalism","retrieval_status":"fetched","content_inspected":true,"published_at":"2026-08-27","documents":[]}}]}]},{"slug":"ats-kulim-customer-financed-expansion-2026","title":"A Customer Funds Its Supplier's Factory","category":"capacity_announcement","event_date":"2026-06-13","date_precision":"day","country":"Malaysia","region":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.manufacturing.ai/topics/substrates#ats-kulim-customer-financed-expansion-2026","assertions":[{"id":"43ccc11c-7c3c-4526-8edd-aaa61a30a32f","predicate":"event.description","statement":"AT&S disclosed on 13 June 2026 agreements with AMD and one unnamed technology company to expand high-end IC substrate capacity at Kulim, stating the 1.5-2.0 billion euros required is fully financed by long-term customer commitments, and raising 2026/27 revenue growth guidance to 45-55% and EBITDA margin guidance to 32-37%.","assessment":"reported","editor_reviewed":false,"reference_only_source_count":0,"evidence":[{"id":"3bdcb2e4-33df-4062-8b74-5ccd7208c47f","stance":"supports","is_primary_for_assertion":true,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"AT&S expands AI substrate capacity in Kulim and increases outlook for 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Gama Plant in Ogaki with mass production from fiscal 2027, citing AI and high-performance server substrate demand.","assessment":"reported","editor_reviewed":false,"reference_only_source_count":0,"evidence":[{"id":"44d775a3-9780-4f46-857c-b79928f70013","stance":"supports","is_primary_for_assertion":true,"origin_independence":"unknown","note":null,"quote":null,"source":{"title":"Notice Regarding Capital Investment Plan for High-Performance IC Package Substrates","publisher":"IBIDEN CO., LTD.","url":"https://www.ibiden.com/company/2026/02/notice-regarding-capital-investment-plan-for-high-performance-ic-package-substrates.html","source_type":"press_release","retrieval_status":"fetched","content_inspected":true,"published_at":"2026-02-03","documents":[]}}]}]},{"slug":"intel-glass-substrates-announced-2023","title":"Intel Opens the Glass Substrate Race","category":"technology_generation_milestone","event_date":"2023-09-18","date_precision":"day","country":"United 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Sources that could not be retrieved are counted per-assertion in `reference_only_source_count`, listed for the whole collection in `consulted_references`, and never presented as evidence. `source_count` counts only sources an assertion actually rests on — it deliberately excludes `consulted_references`, so it is never inflated by material nobody could read.","topic_scope":"Assertions and source counts are limited to the topic's current packet lineage. Reusing a concept in another topic does not silently import that other topic's assertions.","rights":"Statements are Manufacturing.ai's own prose. Source excerpts are not redistributed; `quote` is present only where explicitly cleared.","attribution":"Cite as Manufacturing.ai, https://www.manufacturing.ai/topics/substrates","correction_url":"https://www.manufacturing.ai/methodology#corrections"}}